I don't think there is anyone that can answer this with any certainty, but we can discuss the trends and where they might lead.

Without a doubt, online bookselling is not a popular industry with the large publishing houses because as online booksellers, we are finding homes for millions of books every year and that means the publishers don't get to print and sell as many new copies. This has prompted them to set up print on demand facilities which allows them to avoid the cost of printing thousands of copies for inventory with the associated inventory, distribution, middle-man, and over producing/remainder costs. They would like nothing better than to monopolize all book sales. Print on demand will allow them to print very low volume runs as orders are received.

There is also the issue of how many independent online booksellers the market can support. This is a tough thing to quantify. There are already more than a hundred thousand independent booksellers worldwide and the number is growing rapidly. With this growth come two immediately obvious questions. First, are there enough sales to justify this many booksellers, and second, are there enough books out there to supply the inventories of these booksellers?

There are estimates out there that suggest over 250,000,000 books are sold online annually. If there are 150,000 booksellers supplying these books, they are averaging over 135 sales per month. I alone sell a whole lot more than that and I only have an inventory of about 3000 books.

I think the above numbers for annual book sales is low and the number of really active booksellers is high because many of the advertised booksellers are individuals selling their own collection and some are only participating at the hobby level.

The other part of the equation certainly suggests there are ample resources available to support many more independent booksellers. I never fail to stop by my local library or the clearance shelves of my local chain bookstore and find new books for my inventory. In fact, two days ago I stopped by both and found 87 more books to buy and resell. If I stop by both again today, based on my past experiences, I will find that many more, because they keep putting books out on a daily basis.

Booksellers have been around for centuries and the Internet has just allowed a new kind of bookseller to emerge. I personally do not believe that online bookselling is going away any time soon and based on the number of emerging online marketplaces, e.g., Amazon.com, Alibris.com, Abebooks.com, Half.com, BarnesandNoble.com, etc., etc., the investors in the industry do not think it is going away either. As computers become more commonplace in Europe and Asia, the market is only likely to grow. Granted, it is getting more competitive, but what industry isn't?

If you have additional questions about online bookselling, please visit:

http://www.online-bookselling.com

Or email your question for Michael to:

mike@online-bookselling.com